UBI Tax Policy Macro Model — Tenbo Research

Overview

Liam Wilkinson is working with Tenbo (research collaborator) and Tian Bo on macro modelling of UBI tax policy using SPSDM (Social Policy Simulation Database and Model, or similar).

Key Finding (April 2026 — Challenges Prior Assumptions)

When UBI tax policy is plugged into a standard macro model:

• ↑ Business profitability
• ↑ Labor supply (people work more due to lower wage taxes)
• ↓ Downward pressure on wages (unexpected)
• ↑ Potentially increased rents (unexpected)
• Main driver: lower taxes on wages → higher labor supply → wage compression

Significance

This challenges UBI Works’ prior assumptions about wage effects. The increased labor supply effect creating downward wage pressure is a potential vulnerability in the policy argument that needs addressing.

People

• Liam Wilkinson: Lead analyst working with Tenbo
• Tian Bo: Researcher involved in SPSDM simulation
• Tenbo: Research collaborator/organization

Status

• Liam reviewing new model assumptions as of April 3, 2026
• Liam to send email update to Ken with analysis

Timeline

• 2026-04-03 | Unexpected model outcomes flagged; Liam to investigate new assumptions
• 2026-04-07 | Liam to send email to Tian Bo re: SPSDM simulation