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UBI Tax Policy Macro Model (Tenbo Research)

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UBI Tax Policy Macro Model — Tenbo Research

Overview

Liam Wilkinson is working with Tenbo (research collaborator) and Tian Bo on macro modelling of UBI tax policy using SPSDM (Social Policy Simulation Database and Model, or similar).

Key Finding (April 2026 — Challenges Prior Assumptions)

When UBI tax policy is plugged into a standard macro model:

  • ↑ Business profitability
  • ↑ Labor supply (people work more due to lower wage taxes)
  • ↓ Downward pressure on wages (unexpected)
  • ↑ Potentially increased rents (unexpected)
  • Main driver: lower taxes on wages → higher labor supply → wage compression

Significance

This challenges UBI Works’ prior assumptions about wage effects. The increased labor supply effect creating downward wage pressure is a potential vulnerability in the policy argument that needs addressing.

People

  • Liam Wilkinson: Lead analyst working with Tenbo
  • Tian Bo: Researcher involved in SPSDM simulation
  • Tenbo: Research collaborator/organization

Status

  • Liam reviewing new model assumptions as of April 3, 2026
  • Liam to send email update to Ken with analysis

Timeline

  • 2026-04-03 | Unexpected model outcomes flagged; Liam to investigate new assumptions

  • 2026-04-07 | Liam to send email to Tian Bo re: SPSDM simulation

  • 2026-04-29 | DSGE model v4 milestone: >1,000 LOC, shared with advisors and U of T faculty for cross-checking. Added a density choice function to better predict housing supply/demand. Results for 5% LVT over 40 years: +~6% housing units by year 10, +3% GDP above baseline by year 20; welfare gains for both renters and homeowners (renters slightly more); growth eventually levels off due to labor/firm/capital constraints. Liam considering proposal to present at GOS Network Summer Conference. Referenced in 2026-04-29-ubi-works-operations-update. [Source: Zoom meeting summary, 2026-04-29]

  • 2026-05-01 | Liam reported the DSGE model will be capable of analyzing various LVT variants in ~two weeks; scheduled a 2pm meeting with Tianbo (= Tian Bo) to validate a new set of model outputs. Referenced in 2026-05-01-ubi-works-councillor-lvt-briefing. [Source: Zoom meeting summary, 2026-05-01]

LVT Incidence Analysis — May 2026 Update

Tianbo has been running income and land value tax incidence analysis using BC Assessment data:

  • Lower income households face greater burden from LVT due to higher land-to-net-worth ratios
  • ~50% of lower-income households would lose from the LVT tax change (by income decile analysis)
  • Identified vulnerable populations: mortgage defaulters, inherited property holders
  • Data limitation: Modeling property tax transitions through split-rate taxation is constrained by current dataset limitations
  • Next deliverable: visualizations showing trade-offs between LVT magnitude and introduction rate (housing units produced vs. decapitalization effects)

[Source: Zoom meeting summary, Tianbo & Liam, 2026-05-26]

Timeline

  • 2026-05-26 | Tianbo presented detailed income decile incidence analysis of LVT shift using BC Assessment data. 50% of lower-income HHs would lose. Identified mortgage defaulters + inherited property holders as vulnerable populations. Liam requested trade-off visualizations (LVT magnitude vs. introduction rate). Referenced in ubi-works-meeting-2026-05-26-tianbo-liam. [Source: Zoom meeting, 2026-05-26]

Graph View

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