LVT / Common Wealth Canada — Theory of Change
Source
Distilled from June 27, 2024 meeting between Floyd Marinescu, Liam Wilkinson, and Tyler Meredith (former advisor to PM Trudeau). Full transcript in Notion.
Tyler Meredith’s Theory of Change (June 2024)
Where We Are in the Sequence
Stage 1 — ACHIEVED: Public and political acceptance that taxes are a barrier to housing supply.
- Development charges adding ~$130K to average Toronto unit
- “Growth paying for growth” critique accepted across party lines
- Recognition that incentive structure needs to change
Stage 2 — IN PROGRESS: Get housing policy community to bless LVT as a credible housing policy idea.
- Target: researchers, YIMBY activists (More Neighbors, etc.), thought leaders
- Don’t go broad to the public yet
- Grassroots activist endorsement = social proof needed before political engagement
Stage 3 — ELECTION WINDOW: With policy community on side, engage the public.
- Lead with benefits, never the mechanism
- Frame as: “use tax system to encourage more housing + change how cities are funded”
- Not for the next election — build toward it
Key Strategic Insights
Branding is Critical
- “Land value tax” = sounds like a new tax, will be rejected
- “Tax relief” or “property tax reform” framing is safer
- Best judo move: “We’re going to exempt buildings from property tax” — achieves the shift without naming it
- Tyler’s bank dividend example: “Canada Recovery Dividend” instead of “bank tax” — framing changed political viability entirely
The MPAC Opportunity
- Ontario has not done a property reassessment since 2016
- Government keeps kicking the can — afraid of political consequences
- Next provincial government will have to deal with it eventually
- Strategic window: campaign to reform MPAC mandate following BC’s model (split land vs. building rate)
- BC already does split-rate assessment — useful proof point
Incremental Path (Floyd’s dream scenario)
- Province works with feds to raise Basic Personal Amount
- Rebates for low-income/renter households
- Leave property tax alone initially
- MPAC reform → split land/building rates
- Gradually shift tax burden from buildings to land
Revenue Recycling Requirements
- Political viability requires showing homeowners up to ~80th percentile come out ahead on cash basis
- Middle class household credit (~$5K/year) essential
- Renters benefit through rebates (not directly visible to them)
- FloydResearch: using StatCan data for distributional analysis (was in progress as of June 2024)
Federal vs. Provincial
- Housing = provincial jurisdiction; federal role is limited
- Federal can: pilot programs, Housing Accelerator Fund incentives, research
- Federal cannot: impose uniform property tax changes (constitutional risk)
- Federal wealth tax could touch housing/land but principal residence exemption = political third rail
Seniors / Equity
- Standard approach: defer LVT to death, lien on property, paid at sale/estate
- More creative: invest in quality seniors communities within existing neighbourhoods
- “Aging in place” policy = structural contributor to housing crisis (supply not turning over)
Key Allies / Stakeholders to Cultivate
| Person/Group | Role | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Lombardi | More Neighbors Toronto (YIMBY) | Knows Floyd + Ken personally; get him onside first |
| Mike Moffat | Economist, housing policy | Sympathetic but incremental; works with institutional developers |
| Tyler Meredith | Former Trudeau advisor | Potential collaborator on policy 1-pager |
| Adam Vaughan | Federal Liberal MP | Access via Liam’s brother |
| Maytree Foundation | Policy think tank | Potential alignment per Tyler |
| Bonnie Crombie | Ontario Liberal leadership | Tyler doing her platform work |
Messaging Framework (Per Tyler)
Do say:
- “Use the tax system to encourage more housing”
- “Change how cities are funded”
- “Exempt buildings from property tax”
- “Fair distribution of the tax burden”
- Benefits: more supply, solves housing crisis, fairer for renters
Don’t say:
- “Land value tax” (too jargon-y, sounds like new tax)
- Lead with revenue generation potential
- Lead with Georgist theory or economic ideology
Floyd’s Long-Term Vision (Star Trek framing)
“If we eventually tax most of the rental value of lands and oil and minerals, we have more than enough to pay for a generous basic income. That’s how we get to a Star Trek future — capitalism where the resource part has been removed. No more rentier profit dynamics. Only markets on human innovation.”
This is not for public messaging. It’s the philosophical north star.
Tags
LVT, land-value-tax, theory-of-change, common-wealth, housing, policy-strategy, MPAC, Ontario, branding